Forests and floods in Latin America: science, management, policy and the EPIC FORCE project

The EPIC FORCE project aimed to develop science-based policy recommendations for integrated forest and water resources management, relevant to extreme events for Costa Rica, Ecuador, Chile and Argentina. Data analysis and model application support the hypothesis that, as the size of the flood peak increases, the effect of forest cover becomes less important. Guidelines for integrated water and forest resources management are developed which recognize this effect but emphasize the role that forests play in reducing the flood levels of more moderate events. The research findings are transferred to policy-making for the four focus countries via a set of policy briefs, taking into account the institutional frameworks, achievable policy objectives and key stakeholders.Facultad de Ingenierí

Namilumab or infliximab compared with standard of care in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 (CATALYST): a randomised, multicentre, multi-arm, multistage, open-label, adaptive, phase 2, proof-of-concept trial

BACKGROUND: Dysregulated inflammation is associated with poor outcomes in COVID-19. We aimed to assess the efficacy of namilumab (a granulocyte-macrophage colony stimulating factor inhibitor) and infliximab (a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor) in hospitalised patients with COVID-19, to prioritise agents for phase 3 trials. METHODS: In this randomised, multicentre, multi-arm, multistage, parallel-group, open-label, adaptive, phase 2, proof-of-concept trial (CATALYST), we recruited patients (aged ≥16 years) admitted to hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations of 40 mg/L or greater, at nine hospitals in the UK. Participants were randomly assigned with equal probability to usual care or usual care plus a single intravenous dose of namilumab (150 mg) or infliximab (5 mg/kg). Randomisation was stratified by care location within the hospital (ward vs intensive care unit [ICU]). Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was improvement in inflammation, measured by CRP concentration over time, analysed using Bayesian multilevel models. This trial is now complete and is registered with ISRCTN, 40580903. FINDINGS: Between June 15, 2020, and Feb 18, 2021, we screened 299 patients and 146 were enrolled and randomly assigned to usual care (n=54), namilumab (n=57), or infliximab (n=35). For the primary outcome, 45 patients in the usual care group were compared with 52 in the namilumab group, and 29 in the usual care group were compared with 28 in the infliximab group. The probabilities that the interventions were superior to usual care alone in reducing CRP concentration over time were 97% for namilumab and 15% for infliximab; the point estimates for treatment–time interactions were –0·09 (95% CI –0·19 to 0·00) for namilumab and 0·06 (–0·05 to 0·17) for infliximab. 134 adverse events occurred in 30 (55%) of 55 patients in the namilumab group compared with 145 in 29 (54%) of 54 in the usual care group. 102 adverse events occurred in 20 (69%) of 29 patients in the infliximab group compared with 112 in 17 (50%) of 34 in the usual care group. Death occurred in six (11%) patients in the namilumab group compared with ten (19%) in the usual care group, and in four (14%) in the infliximab group compared with five (15%) in the usual care group. INTERPRETATION: Namilumab, but not infliximab, showed proof-of-concept evidence for reduction in inflammation—as measured by CRP concentration—in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Namilumab should be prioritised for further investigation in COVID-19. FUNDING: Medical Research Council

Mining a Cathepsin Inhibitor Library for New Antiparasitic Drug Leads

The targeting of parasite cysteine proteases with small molecules is emerging as a possible approach to treat tropical parasitic diseases such as sleeping sickness, Chagas' disease, and malaria. The homology of parasite cysteine proteases to the human cathepsins suggests that inhibitors originally developed for the latter may be a source of promising lead compounds for the former. We describe here the screening of a unique ∼2,100-member cathepsin inhibitor library against five parasite cysteine proteases thought to be relevant in tropical parasitic diseases. Compounds active against parasite enzymes were subsequently screened against cultured Plasmodium falciparum, Trypanosoma brucei brucei and/or Trypanosoma cruzi parasites and evaluated for cytotoxicity to mammalian cells. The end products of this effort include the identification of sub-micromolar cell-active leads as well as the elucidation of structure-activity trends that can guide further optimization efforts

Comment letters to the National Commission on Commission on Fraudulent Financial Reporting, 1987 (Treadway Commission) Vol. 2

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/aicpa_sop/1662/thumbnail.jp

Modelling the effect of forest cover on shallow landslides at the river basin scale

The potential for reducing the occurrence of shallow landslides through targeted reforestation of critical parts of a river basin is explored through mathematical modelling. Through the systematic investigation of land management options, modelling allows the optimum strategies to be selected ahead of any real intervention in the basin. Physically based models, for which the parameters can be evaluated using physical reasoning, offer particular advantages for predicting the effects of possible future changes in land use and climate. Typically a physically based landslide model consists of a coupled hydrological model (for soil moisture) and a geotechnical slope stability model, along with an impact model, such as basin sediment yield. An application of the SHETRAN model to the 65.8-km2 Guabalcón basin in central Ecuador demonstrates a technique for identifying the areas of a basin most susceptible to shallow landsliding and for quantifying the effects of different vegetation covers on landslide incidence. Thus, for the modelled scenario, increasing root cohesion from 300 to 1500 Pa causes a two-thirds reduction in the number of landslides. Useful information can be obtained even on the basis of imperfect data availability but model output should be interpreted carefully in the light of parameter uncertainty.Cuenc

45 years of non-stationary hydrology over a forest plantation growth cycle, Coalburn catchment, Northern England

The Coalburn research catchment (1.5 km2) in Kielder Forest, Northern England, is a long-term project to study the effect of upland afforestation on hydrology. There is now a unique 45-year record; making it Britain’s longest running forest hydrology research catchment. The site was instrumented in 1967, ploughed and planted in 1972/73 and the trees have now reached maturity. Hourly meteorological data have been measured since 1993 and these have enabled hydrological simulations to be carried out using the Shetran model for the period 1993–2011. The results from this work show that after ploughing there was an increase of around 50–100 mm in annual streamflow compared with the original upland grassland vegetation. However, the mature trees now show a decrease of around 250–300 mm in the annual streamflow compared with the original vegetation and a decrease of around 350 mm in the annual streamflow compared with when the site was ploughed. The simulation results show very clearly the non-stationary nature of the catchment during 1993–2011 with an annual increase in intercepted evaporation and a decrease in discharge as the trees grow. Simulation results also show that peak discharges are higher for a cover of smaller trees compared with taller trees. However, the results suggest that the bigger the event the smaller is the difference, i.e. there is absolute convergence for the two different tree scenarios at higher discharges. The study shows how modelling can compensate for data deficiencies, to maximise outcomes. As a rare example of long-term analysis of non-stationary catchment behaviour it also provides real evidence of change that would otherwise have had to be inferred theoretically